Will Donald Trump say “50,000”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “50,000” at 17 of 21 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 22, 2026 (81%), most recently on Jul 6, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 69% (n=21, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no no yes no yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
50,000
- Probability
- 69% · n=21
- Settled
- 17/21 (81%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…like it until they announced that they're going to pay the teachers $50,000 a piece, take care of education. Then they had another one in…
Every settled listing
newest first · 21 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 12, 2026 | 50,000 |  Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Jul 5, 2026 | 50,000 | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (7 of 10 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 28, 2026 | 50,000 | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jun 21, 2026 | 50,000 | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (9 of 13 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 14, 2026 | 50,000 | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jun 7, 2026 | 50,000 | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (4 of 5 known appearances transcribed)) |
| May 31, 2026 | 50,000 | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 24, 2026 | 50,000 | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 17, 2026 | 50,000 | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 10, 2026 | 50,000 | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 3, 2026 | 50,000 | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 26, 2026 | 50,000 | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 19, 2026 | 50,000 | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 12, 2026 | 50,000 | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 5, 2026 | 50,000 | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 50,000 | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 50,000 | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 50,000 | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 50,000 | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 50,000 | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 22, 2026 | 50,000 | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “50,000”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “50,000” at 17 of 21 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 22, 2026 (81%), most recently on Jul 6, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “50,000” next time?
- 69%, from settlement history (n=21). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘50,000’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/50-000 (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=50%20000 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP