Will Donald Trump say “Hat”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Hat” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Feb 8, 2026 (50%), most recently on Feb 4, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 49% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Hat
- Probability
- 49% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…love you very much. But the dancing is not presidential. And she hates in particular the weightlifting. You know where the woman the woman gets…
…said she actually said please please never do that again. She also hates me dancing, you know. No, I said I said look Melania, you…
…opinion. I think she's a sick, a very dishonest person, but who hates our country. And she comes from a country that is essentially not…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown
PolymarketQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Hat”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Hat” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Feb 8, 2026 (50%), most recently on Feb 4, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Hat” next time?
- 49%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Hat’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/hat (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=hat · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP