Will Donald Trump say “Shit / Ass”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Shit / Ass” at 11 of 17 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Nov 16, 2025 (65%), most recently on Oct 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 49% (n=17, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes no yes yes no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Shit / Ass
- Probability
- 49% · n=17
- Settled
- 11/17 (65%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 17 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Shit / Ass |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Shit / Ass | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Shit / Ass | Polymarket | No | – |
| May 10, 2026 | Ass / Shit | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Ass / Shit | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Shit / Ass | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Ass / Shit | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Ass / Shit | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Ass / Shit | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Feb 22, 2026 | Shit / Ass | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Jan 11, 2026 | Ass / Shit | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Ass / Shit | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Ass / Shit | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Ass / Shit | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Dec 2, 2025 | Ass / Shit | Polymarket | No | – |
| Nov 21, 2025 | Ass / Shit | Polymarket | No | – |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Shit / Ass | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Shit / Ass”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Shit / Ass” at 11 of 17 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Nov 16, 2025 (65%), most recently on Oct 14, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Shit / Ass” next time?
- 49%, from settlement history (n=17). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Shit / Ass’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/ass-or-shit (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=ass%20%2F%20shit · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP