Will Donald Trump say “Friend of Mine”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump said “Friend of Mine” at 10 of 18 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Apr 30, 2025 (56%), most recently on Jul 23, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 50% (n=18, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes no yes no no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Friend of Mine
- Probability
- 50% · n=18
- Settled
- 10/18 (56%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…the United States Senate. And we're going to elect a great friend of mine, Rick Jackson, as your next governor. Thank you. We're going to…
…Very crooked elections. But if you call New Mexico. So a friend of mine lives there and he says every time he goes on a…
…replacing somebody who's been a fantastic friend. Joanie, thank you very much. You've been a fantastic friend of mine. So, Ashley, come on up, please.
…they did in France. And I told President Macron, who's a friend of mine -- I have known him right from the beginning. Right after…
Every settled listing
newest first · 19 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | Friend of Mine |  Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Friend of Mine | Polymarket | Yes | 3 |
| May 18, 2026 | Friend of mine | Polymarket | No | – |
| May 14, 2026 | Friend of mine | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Friend of Mine |  Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) | – |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Friend of mine | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 19, 2026 | Friend of mine | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Friend of mine | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Friend of Mine | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Friend of Mine | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Friend of Mine | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jan 15, 2026 | Friend of mine | Polymarket | No | – |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Friend of mine | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Friend of mine | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Friend of mine | Polymarket | No | – |
| Aug 8, 2025 | Friend of mine | Polymarket | No | – |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Friend of mine | Polymarket | No | – |
| May 1, 2025 | Friend of Mine | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Apr 30, 2025 | Friend of Mine | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Friend of Mine”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump said “Friend of Mine” at 10 of 18 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Apr 30, 2025 (56%), most recently on Jul 23, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Friend of Mine” next time?
- 50%, from settlement history (n=18). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Friend of Mine’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/friend-of-mine (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=friend%20of%20mine · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP