Will Donald Trump say “Iran / Iranian”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Iran / Iranian” at 22 of 37 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 20, 2026 (59%), most recently on Oct 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 55% (n=37, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.

55%from settlement history only · n=37counts: named speaker only
Last 10
6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes yes yes yes no yes no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
named speaker only
Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Iran / Iranian

Probability
55% · n=37
Settled
22/37 (59%)
Last 8 remarks
said in 3 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in Florida · Oct 23, 2026 · 20:20In transcript

…doing very well. You have no idea how well we're doing with Iran. Iran is finished. Iran is finished. But think of it. But I…

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in Iowa · Oct 22, 2026 · 10:51In transcript

…used the name Elan Omar, but rather it's an entirely different name. Iran Nur say Almi slightly different than Ilan that's and I don't know…

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Roundtable · Oct 21, 2026 · 27:21In transcript

…been pretty happy with Russia, that they have not gotten involved with Iran. We've -- we've taken Iran down to levels that they've never seen…

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in South Carolina · Oct 21, 2026 · 37:19In transcript

…Texas, Louisiana, all parts of our country. Millions and millions of barrels of oil. I terminated Barack Hussein Obama's JCPOA or the Iran nuclear deal,

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Announcement · Oct 20, 2026 · 1:08:33In transcript

…countries in Europe and, as you know, we're doing very well with Iran. We just have to make a final decision of which way do…

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · settled no

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 39 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 19, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo–
Oct 15, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes–
Oct 8, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo–
Oct 6, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes–
Oct 1, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes–
Sep 30, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes–
Sep 29, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes–
Sep 24, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo–
Sep 24, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo–
Sep 22, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes17
Sep 17, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo0
Sep 17, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo–
Sep 12, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes2
Sep 10, 2026Iran / IranianPolymarketNo0
Sep 10, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo0
Aug 24, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo0
Aug 24, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes4
Aug 20, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Aug 6, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo0
Jul 29, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes3
Jul 29, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo0
Jul 28, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes2
Jun 5, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes5
May 22, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes–
May 21, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes–
May 20, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes–
May 19, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes–
May 18, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo–
May 18, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes–
May 15, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes–
May 14, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes–
May 14, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes–
May 14, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo–
May 12, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo–
May 11, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes–
May 11, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes–
May 5, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes–
Apr 26, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo–
Apr 20, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Iran / Iranian”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Iran / Iranian” at 22 of 37 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 20, 2026 (59%), most recently on Oct 15, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Iran / Iranian” next time?
55%, from settlement history (n=37). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Iran / Iranian’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/iran-or-iranian (CC BY 4.0)

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