Will Donald Trump say “Iran / Iranian”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Iran / Iranian” at 22 of 37 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 20, 2026 (59%), most recently on Oct 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 55% (n=37, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes yes yes yes no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearanceDonald Trump
Iran / Iranian
- Probability
- 55% · n=37
- Settled
- 22/37 (59%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…doing very well. You have no idea how well we're doing with Iran. Iran is finished. Iran is finished. But think of it. But I…
…used the name Elan Omar, but rather it's an entirely different name. Iran Nur say Almi slightly different than Ilan that's and I don't know…
…been pretty happy with Russia, that they have not gotten involved with Iran. We've -- we've taken Iran down to levels that they've never seen…
…Texas, Louisiana, all parts of our country. Millions and millions of barrels of oil. I terminated Barack Hussein Obama's JCPOA or the Iran nuclear deal,
…countries in Europe and, as you know, we're doing very well with Iran. We just have to make a final decision of which way do…
Every settled listing
newest first · 39 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | No | – | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Yes | – | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | No | – | |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Yes | – | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Yes | – | |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Yes | – | |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Yes | – | |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | No | – | |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | No | – | |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Yes | 17 | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | No | 0 | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | No | – | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Yes | 2 | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | No | 0 | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | No | 0 | |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | No | 0 | |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Yes | 4 | |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Void (did not qualify) | – | |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | No | 0 | |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Yes | 3 | |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | No | 0 | |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Yes | 2 | |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Yes | 5 | |
| May 22, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Yes | – | |
| May 21, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Yes | – | |
| May 20, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Yes | – | |
| May 19, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Yes | – | |
| May 18, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | No | – | |
| May 18, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Yes | – | |
| May 15, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Yes | – | |
| May 14, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Yes | – | |
| May 14, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Yes | – | |
| May 14, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | No | – | |
| May 12, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | No | – | |
| May 11, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Yes | – | |
| May 11, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Yes | – | |
| May 5, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Yes | – | |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | No | – | |
| Apr 20, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Iran / Iranian”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Iran / Iranian” at 22 of 37 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 20, 2026 (59%), most recently on Oct 15, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Iran / Iranian” next time?
- 55%, from settlement history (n=37). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Iran / Iranian’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/iran-or-iranian (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=iran%20%2F%20iranian · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP