Will Donald Trump say “Fentanyl / Cocaine”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Fentanyl / Cocaine” at 3 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 7, 2026 (43%), most recently on Feb 24, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 3/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Fentanyl / Cocaine
- Probability
- 41% · n=7
- Settled
- 3/7 (43%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
As you know, we tariffed them due to the fentanyl, and what they have is fentanyl is used for many purposes. But when it's used…
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Fentanyl / Cocaine |  Kalshi | No |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Fentanyl / Cocaine |  Polymarket | Yes |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Fentanyl / Cocaine | Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Cocaine / Fentanyl | Kalshi | No |
| Jan 10, 2026 | Fentanyl / Cocaine | Kalshi | No |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Fentanyl / Cocaine | Kalshi | No |
| Jan 7, 2026 | Fentanyl / Cocaine | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Fentanyl / Cocaine”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Fentanyl / Cocaine” at 3 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 7, 2026 (43%), most recently on Feb 24, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Fentanyl / Cocaine” next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Fentanyl / Cocaine’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/cocaine-or-fentanyl (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=cocaine%20%2F%20fentanyl · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP