# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · speech 2026-02-24 · 54 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26FEB28 · as_of 2026-10-25T07:51:45Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-02-24 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 speech transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26FEB28 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of 2026 State of the Union, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rows 1-39 of 54 by p · more: offset=39 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	48	35	0.73	YYYYYYYYYY	1	1	0.71	hist	no
Mental Institution	mental institution	17	14	0.82	YYYYYYYYnn	1	1	0.66	hist	yes
Trillion	trillion	72	52	0.72	YYYYnYYYYn	1	1	0.66	hist	yes
No No No	no no no	4	4	1	YYYY	1	0	0.65	hist	yes
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	27	19	0.7	nnYYYYYYYY	1	0	0.63	hist	no
Nuclear	nuclear	108	67	0.62	nnnnnnnYYY	1	1	0.6	hist	yes
Eight War	eight war	54	32	0.59	nYnnnYYnYY	1	1	0.6	hist	yes
TrumpRX / TrumpRX.gov	trumprx|trumprxgov	4	3	0.75	YYYn	1	0	0.57	hist	yes
Hottest	hottest	151	84	0.56	YYnYYYYnYY	1	1	0.57	hist	yes
Windmill	windmill	14	8	0.57	YnYYnnnYYY	1	1	0.56	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	102	44	0.43	YnnnYYYYnn	1	1	0.56	hist	yes
Cheat / Cheater / Cheating	cheat|cheater|cheating	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.54	hist	yes
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	18	10	0.56	YYnnnYnYYY	1	0	0.54	hist	no
Transgender	transgender	68	36	0.53	nYYYYYnYYn	1	1	0.54	hist	no
Fake News	fake new	59	33	0.56	nnYYnnYYYY	1	1	0.52	hist	no
Trump	trump	41	22	0.54	nnYnYYnYYY	1	1	0.52	hist	yes
Stock Market	stock market	40	23	0.57	YYYnYYYnYn	1	1	0.5	hist	yes
Midnight Hammer	midnight hammer	4	2	0.5	YnnY	1	1	0.5	hist	yes
Somali / Somalia / Somalian	somali|somalia|somalian	30	14	0.47	YnnYnYYnYn	1	1	0.5	hist	yes
Egg	egg	18	6	0.33	nnnnnnnYYn	1	1	0.5	hist	yes
DOGE / Department of Government Efficiency	department of government efficiency|doge	4	2	0.5	nYnY	1	0	0.49	hist	no
Discombobulator	discombobulator	2	1	0.5	Yn	1	0	0.49	hist	no
Olympics / World Cup	olympic|world cup	0	0			1	0	0.49	hist	yes
250	250	9	5	0.56	YYYnYYnnn	1	1	0.48	hist	yes
UFC	ufc	11	6	0.55	YYnnnYYYYn	1	0	0.48	hist	no
Hockey	hockey	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.48	hist	yes
Rare Earth / Mineral	mineral|rare earth	25	11	0.44	nnnYYYnnYY	1	1	0.47	hist	no
Cancer	cancer	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.47	hist	no
Genius Act	genius act	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.47	hist	no
Radical Left	radical left	46	20	0.43	nYnnnnYnYY	1	1	0.46	hist	no
Fentanyl / Cocaine	cocaine|fentanyl	4	1	0.25	Ynnn	1	1	0.46	hist	yes
Ethereum	ethereum	4	0	0	nnnn	1	0	0.46	hist	no
Martial Law	martial law	3	0	0	nnn	1	0	0.46	hist	no
Affordability	affordability	3	1	0.33	nYn	1	1	0.45	hist	yes
Vaccine / Autism	autism|vaccine	0	0			1	1	0.45	hist	no
Hoax	hoax	26	11	0.42	YYYnnnnnnY	1	0	0.44	hist	no
DEI / Woke	dei|woke	6	2	0.33	YYnnnn	1	1	0.44	hist	yes
Coal	coal	4	1	0.25	nnnY	1	1	0.44	hist	no
Drill Baby Drill	drill baby drill	49	28	0.57	nnnYnnnnYn	1	0	0.43	hist	yes