Will Donald Trump say “Alien”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Alien” at 6 of 17 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 25, 2024 (35%), most recently on Jul 16, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 31% (n=17, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no yes no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 5 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Alien
- Probability
- 31% · n=17
- Settled
- 6/17 (35%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Court of the United States, giving free health care to all illegal aliens, defunding the police, closing all prisons, releasing thousands of violent criminals to…
…deadly sanctuary cities. He voted to give lavish welfare benefits to illegal aliens and even wrote a memo giving illegal alien criminals instructions on how…
…through, totally unchecked, totally unvetted. In the past 17 months, zero illegal aliens have been admitted to the United States. ZERO, RIGHT? Remember the way…
…actually, well over 100, many, many over 100. We kicked 275,000 illegal aliens off of Social Security. And Frank has been amazing in Social Security,…
…invited. Unless they have permission. In the past 16 months, zero illegal aliens have been admitted to the United States. And that's done by some…
Every settled listing
newest first · 18 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | Alien |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Alien |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Alien | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Alien | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Alien | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Alien | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Alien | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Alien | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 22, 2026 | Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 2, 2025 | Alien | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 29, 2025 | Alien | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 25, 2024 | Alien | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Alien”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Alien” at 6 of 17 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 25, 2024 (35%), most recently on Jul 16, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Alien” next time?
- 31%, from settlement history (n=17). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Alien’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/alien (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=alien · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP