Will Donald Trump say “DOGE / Department of Government Efficiency”?
As of Oct 28, 2026, Donald Trump said “DOGE / Department of Government Efficiency” at 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 13, 2025 (40%), most recently on Apr 29, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 46% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 6 speeches we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 2/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
DOGE / Department of Government Efficiency
- Probability
- 46% · n=5
- Settled
- 2/5 (40%)
- Last 6 speeches
- said in 0 of 6
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2026 | DOGE / Department of Government Efficiency |  Kalshi | No |
| Apr 29, 2025 | DOGE / Department of Government Efficiency | Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 20, 2025 | DOGE / Department of Government Efficiency |  Polymarket | No |
| Mar 4, 2025 | DOGE/Department of Government Efficiency | Polymarket | Yes |
| Mar 4, 2025 | DOGE / "Department of Government Efficiency" | Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 13, 2025 | DOGE/Department of Government Efficiency | Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “DOGE / Department of Government Efficiency”?
- As of Oct 28, 2026, Donald Trump said “DOGE / Department of Government Efficiency” at 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 13, 2025 (40%), most recently on Apr 29, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “DOGE / Department of Government Efficiency” next time?
- 46%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘DOGE / Department of Government Efficiency’ mention history”, as of Oct 28, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/department-of-government-efficiency-or-doge (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=department%20of%20government%20efficiency%20%2F%20doge · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP