Will Donald Trump say “ICE / National Guard”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “ICE / National Guard” at 10 of 31 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 16, 2025 (32%), most recently on Feb 24, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=31, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no yes no no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
ICE / National Guard
- Probability
- 40% · n=31
- Settled
- 10/31 (32%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
He's a great guy. Actually, I'll tell you. Border Patrol and ICE and all law enforcement. Boy, I met a lot of your law enforcement…
Every settled listing
newest first · 31 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 13, 2026 | ICE / National Guard |  Kalshi | No |
| Feb 24, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 24, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 20, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 19, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 13, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 12, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 11, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 9, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 7, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 6, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 5, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 4, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 4, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 3, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No |
| Jan 30, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No |
| Jan 30, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No |
| Jan 29, 2026 | ICE / National Guard |  Polymarket | No |
| Jan 29, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No |
| Jan 28, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 28, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No |
| Jan 21, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 16, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 15, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No |
| Jan 14, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 10, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 9, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | Yes |
| Dec 20, 2025 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No |
| Dec 18, 2025 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No |
| Dec 17, 2025 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No |
| Dec 16, 2025 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “ICE / National Guard”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “ICE / National Guard” at 10 of 31 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 16, 2025 (32%), most recently on Feb 24, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “ICE / National Guard” next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=31). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘ICE / National Guard’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/ice-or-national-guard (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=ice%20%2F%20national%20guard · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP