Will Donald Trump say “Insurrection Act”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Insurrection Act” at any of the 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 posts windows have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 0/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 5 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Insurrection Act
- Probability
- 40% · n=5
- Settled
- 0/5 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Insurrection Act |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Insurrection Act |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 8, 2026 | Insurrection Act | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Insurrection Act | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Insurrection Act | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Insurrection Act”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Insurrection Act” at any of the 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 20, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Insurrection Act” next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Insurrection Act’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/insurrection-act (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=insurrection%20act · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP