Will Donald Trump say “Too Late / Fed”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Too Late / Fed” at 3 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 5, 2025 (43%), most recently on Apr 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 42% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 3/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Too Late / Fed
- Probability
- 42% · n=7
- Settled
- 3/7 (43%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2026 | Too Late / Fed |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Fed / Too Late | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Nov 13, 2025 | Fed / Too Late |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 13, 2025 | Fed / Too Late | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 12, 2025 | Too late / Fed | Polymarket | No | – |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Too Late / Fed | Polymarket | No | – |
| Aug 5, 2025 | Too Late / Fed | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Too Late / Fed”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Too Late / Fed” at 3 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 5, 2025 (43%), most recently on Apr 15, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Too Late / Fed” next time?
- 42%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Too Late / Fed’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/fed-or-too-late (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=fed%20%2F%20too%20late · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP