Will Donald Trump say “NVIDIA”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “NVIDIA” at 8 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 11, 2025 (53%), most recently on Oct 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 56% (n=15, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes no no yes no yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 99¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
NVIDIA
- Probability
- 56% · n=15
- Settled
- 8/15 (53%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 16 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | NVIDIA |  Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (5 of 31 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Nvidia |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 30, 2026 | NVIDIA | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (30 of 42 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Nvidia | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 17, 2026 | NVIDIA | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Nvidia | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Nvidia | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Nvidia | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 28, 2025 | Nvidia | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Aug 8, 2025 | Nvidia | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 5, 2025 | Nvidia | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 23, 2025 | Nvidia | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jul 22, 2025 | NVIDIA | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 15, 2025 | Nvidia | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jul 15, 2025 | NVIDIA | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 11, 2025 | NVIDIA | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “NVIDIA”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “NVIDIA” at 8 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 11, 2025 (53%), most recently on Oct 8, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “NVIDIA” next time?
- 56%, from settlement history (n=15). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘NVIDIA’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/nvidia (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=nvidia · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP