Will Donald Trump say “Biden” 3+ times?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Biden” 3+ times at 10 of 19 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 14, 2025 (53%), most recently on Oct 2, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 54% (n=19, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (3+, named speaker only) in 4.
- Last 10
- 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no no no yes yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Biden 3+ times
- Probability
- 54% · n=19
- Settled
- 10/19 (53%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…media. You know, I was telling him the other night I imitated Biden on the stage where he used to walk off walls and could…
…actually zero in 17 months. Who can believe it, right? Remember Joe Biden said we'd have to go to Congress to get a change. I…
Yeah. Sure, sure. We had a wonderful man who, during the Biden administration, was taken hostage in Russia. They claimed things -- we won't get…
…run in South Carolina? Am I in a different state? Maybe like Biden. Remember, he was in Florida and he thought he was in Maine.…
…look, it's been going on for a long time. But in the Biden administration, it was sick. Nick used his popular YouTube channel to reveal…
Every settled listing
newest first · 19 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Biden 3+ times |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Biden 3+ times | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Feb 10, 2026 | Biden 3+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Biden 3+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Biden 3+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Dec 24, 2025 | Biden 3+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Dec 11, 2025 | Biden 3+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 28, 2025 | Biden 3+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Biden 3+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 15, 2025 | Biden 3+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Biden 3+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 29, 2025 | Biden 3+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Biden 3+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 18, 2025 | Biden 3+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 18, 2025 | Biden 3+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 12, 2025 | Biden 3+ | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Biden 3+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Aug 5, 2025 | Biden 3+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jun 14, 2025 | Biden 3+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Biden 3+ times”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Biden” 3+ times at 10 of 19 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 14, 2025 (53%), most recently on Oct 2, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Biden 3+ times” next time?
- 54%, from settlement history (n=19). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Biden 3+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/biden-3plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=biden%20%283%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP