Will Donald Trump say “Reciprocal”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump said “Reciprocal” at 4 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 19, 2025 (36%), most recently on Jul 23, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=11, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no no no yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Reciprocal
- Probability
- 41% · n=11
- Settled
- 4/11 (36%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 11 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2025 | Reciprocal |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 5, 2025 | Reciprocal | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 1, 2025 | Reciprocal | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Jul 22, 2025 | Reciprocal | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 30, 2025 | Reciprocal | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 8, 2025 | Reciprocal | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 6, 2025 | Reciprocal | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 29, 2025 | Reciprocal | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 7, 2025 | Reciprocal |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Apr 2, 2025 | Reciprocal | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 19, 2025 | Reciprocal | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Reciprocal”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump said “Reciprocal” at 4 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 19, 2025 (36%), most recently on Jul 23, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Reciprocal” next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=11). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Reciprocal’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/reciprocal (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=reciprocal · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP