Will Donald Trump say “Canada”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Canada” at 7 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 7, 2025 (47%), most recently on Aug 6, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 42% (n=15, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no yes no no yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 81¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Canada
- Probability
- 42% · n=15
- Settled
- 7/15 (47%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…in very rapid fashion. And I also changed a a beautiful lake that's quite near Canada into Lake America. Lake America. What a beautiful lake.
…right now, record number of car plants are all coming in from Canada, they're coming in from Mexico, they're coming in from Germany and Japan,…
…the new ones are coming in from all over the world. From Canada, from Mexico, from Germany, they come from China. They're coming from all…
…where we do business and we have deficits with almost everybody -- Canada, $90 billion; Mexico, $175 billion; European Union, $225 billion. We're cutting them…
Every settled listing
newest first · 16 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | Canada |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Canada |  Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Canada | Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Canada | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Canada | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Canada | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 5, 2025 | Canada | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 29, 2025 | Canada | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 8, 2025 | Canada | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 30, 2025 | Canada | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 2, 2025 | Canada | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 24, 2025 | Canada | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 11, 2025 | Canada | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 4, 2025 | Canada | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 4, 2025 | Canada | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 7, 2025 | Canada | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Canada”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Canada” at 7 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 7, 2025 (47%), most recently on Aug 6, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Canada” next time?
- 42%, from settlement history (n=15). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Canada’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/canada (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=canada · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP