Will Donald Trump say “Sanction”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Sanction” at 3 of 30 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 21, 2025 (10%), most recently on Sep 18, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 24% (n=30, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 posts windows have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.

24%from settlement history only · n=30counts: named speaker only
Last 10
0/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no no no
Streak
not said the last 10 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=sanction

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Sanction

Probability
24% · n=30
Settled
3/30 (10%)
Last 8 transcripts
said in 0 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not said

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Every settled listing

newest first · 31 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 18, 2026SanctionPolymarketNo0
Oct 11, 2026SanctionPolymarketNo0
Sep 20, 2026SanctionPolymarketNo0
Jan 9, 2026SanctionPolymarketNo–
Nov 11, 2025SanctionKalshiNo–
Nov 11, 2025SanctionKalshiNo–
Nov 8, 2025SanctionKalshiNo–
Oct 27, 2025SanctionKalshiNo–
Oct 24, 2025SanctionKalshiNo–
Oct 18, 2025SanctionKalshiNo–
Oct 17, 2025SanctionPolymarketNo–
Sep 30, 2025SanctionKalshiNo–
Sep 29, 2025SanctionKalshiNo–
Sep 29, 2025SanctionKalshiNo–
Sep 23, 2025SanctionKalshiNo–
Sep 18, 2025SanctionKalshiYes–
Sep 18, 2025SanctionKalshiNo–
Sep 15, 2025SanctionKalshiNo–
Aug 25, 2025SanctionKalshiNo–
Aug 19, 2025SanctionKalshiNo–
Aug 16, 2025SanctionKalshiNo–
Aug 8, 2025SanctionPolymarketNo–
Aug 8, 2025SanctionKalshiNo–
Aug 7, 2025SanctionPolymarketNo–
Aug 5, 2025SanctionKalshiNo–
Jun 29, 2025SanctionKalshiYes–
Jun 25, 2025SanctionPolymarketNo–
Jun 21, 2025SanctionKalshiNo–
Jun 6, 2025SanctionKalshiNo–
Jun 5, 2025SanctionPolymarketYes–
May 21, 2025SanctionKalshiNo–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Sanction”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Sanction” at 3 of 30 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 21, 2025 (10%), most recently on Sep 18, 2025.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Sanction” next time?
24%, from settlement history (n=30). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Sanction’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/sanction (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=sanction · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP