Will Donald Trump say “Elon”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Elon” at 16 of 32 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 12, 2024 (50%), most recently on Jul 12, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 55% (n=32, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 posts windows have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 5.
- Last 10
- 1/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 6 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 100¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Elon
- Probability
- 55% · n=32
- Settled
- 16/32 (50%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…tremendous respect for, Elhan Omar. And I was saddened to hear that Elon Omar is not her name. It's not It's not Elon Omar. The…
…moderate. So he can go vote with extremists like Abdul Muhammad Aliad. They can be together. and James Telerico and oh no Elon Omar B.
…has been an incredible partner to law enforcement, as has X and Elon Musk. In April, FBI and the Dubai Police announced the arrest of…
…popular. Federal government puts in a thousand and we have tremendous men. Elon just made a big investment. Uh Michael Dell and Susan put in…
…things people have seen ever in government. And I want to thank Elon Musk. You saw what he was doing. He's -- one share to…
Every settled listing
newest first · 32 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1, 2025 | Elon |  Kalshi | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Aug 5, 2025 | Elon | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 18, 2025 | Elon |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Jul 18, 2025 | Elon | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jul 15, 2025 | Elon | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jul 12, 2025 | Elon | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jul 11, 2025 | Elon | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Jun 27, 2025 | Elon | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Jun 25, 2025 | Elon | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jun 20, 2025 | Elon | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Jun 10, 2025 | Elon | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jun 6, 2025 | Elon | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 23, 2025 | Elon | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Apr 29, 2025 | Elon | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Apr 15, 2025 | Elon | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Apr 2, 2025 | Elon | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 20, 2025 | Elon | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 11, 2025 | Elon | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Feb 27, 2025 | Elon | Polymarket | No | – |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Elon | Polymarket | No | – |
| Dec 5, 2024 | Elon | Polymarket | No | – |
| Nov 15, 2024 | Elon | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Elon | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Elon | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 29, 2024 | Elon | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 28, 2024 | Elon | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 25, 2024 | Elon | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Elon | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 18, 2024 | Elon | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 16, 2024 | Elon | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 15, 2024 | Elon | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Elon | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Elon”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Elon” at 16 of 32 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 12, 2024 (50%), most recently on Jul 12, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Elon” next time?
- 55%, from settlement history (n=32). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Elon’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/elon (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=elon · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP