Will Donald Trump say “Tesla”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Tesla” at 4 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 12, 2024 (27%), most recently on Oct 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 58% (n=15, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.

58%from settlement history only · n=15Next: Monthly window, Oct 31, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no no no no no no yes
Streak
said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Tesla

Probability
58% · n=15
Settled
4/15 (27%)
Last 8 transcripts
said in 0 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 16 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Oct 8, 2026TeslaPolymarketYes
Aug 8, 2025TeslaKalshiNo
Aug 5, 2025TeslaKalshiNo
Jul 15, 2025TeslaKalshiNo
May 30, 2025TeslaPolymarketNo
May 21, 2025TeslaKalshiNo
Apr 2, 2025TeslaPolymarketNo
Apr 2, 2025TeslaKalshiNo
Mar 24, 2025TeslaKalshiNo
Mar 11, 2025TeslaKalshiYes
Feb 22, 2025TeslaKalshiNo
Feb 18, 2025TeslaKalshiYes
Dec 8, 2024TeslaPolymarketNo
Oct 18, 2024TeslaPolymarketNo
Oct 5, 2024TeslaPolymarketYes
Aug 12, 2024TeslaPolymarketNo

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Tesla”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Tesla” at 4 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 12, 2024 (27%), most recently on Oct 8, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Tesla” next time?
58%, from settlement history (n=15). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Tesla’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/tesla (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=tesla · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP