Will Donald Trump say “Chip”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Chip” at 7 of 12 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 3, 2025 (58%), most recently on Oct 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 57% (n=12, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes no yes yes no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Chip
- Probability
- 57% · n=12
- Settled
- 7/12 (58%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 13 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Chip |  Polymarket | Yes |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Chip | Polymarket | No |
| Aug 8, 2025 | Chip |  Kalshi | No |
| Aug 6, 2025 | Chip | Kalshi | Yes |
| Aug 5, 2025 | Chip | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jul 22, 2025 | Chip | Kalshi | No |
| Jul 15, 2025 | Chip | Polymarket | Yes |
| Jul 15, 2025 | Chip | Kalshi | Yes |
| May 13, 2025 | Chip | Kalshi | No |
| May 8, 2025 | Chip | Kalshi | Yes |
| Apr 2, 2025 | Chip | Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 11, 2025 | Chip | Polymarket | No |
| Mar 3, 2025 | Chip | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Chip”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Chip” at 7 of 12 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 3, 2025 (58%), most recently on Oct 14, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Chip” next time?
- 57%, from settlement history (n=12). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Chip’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/chip (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=chip · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP