Will Donald Trump say “India”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “India” at 14 of 18 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 2, 2025 (78%), most recently on Sep 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 53% (n=18, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes no yes no yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
India
- Probability
- 53% · n=18
- Settled
- 14/18 (78%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…about let's say for our country. You settle eight wars. You stop India and Pakistan. Two nuclear. You stop them there. I did on trade.…
…to settle wars because of it. I say, "You going to fight India and Pakistan?" They were fighting. They 11 planes already knocked down. And…
…Kosovo, Serbia, the Congo and Rwanda. These were raging wars. Pakistan and India. Remember they were raging. Egypt and Ethiopia, Armenia, Azerbaijan. We got all…
It sounds like a trade deal with India is close. Can you go into that?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…and Serbia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda, Pakistan and India, Armenia and Azerbaijan. And of course, the war in Gaza, which, as…
Every settled listing
newest first · 18 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | India |  Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Feb 24, 2026 | India | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | India |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 5, 2025 | India | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 18, 2025 | India | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Nov 8, 2025 | India | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 22, 2025 | India | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 22, 2025 | India | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 8, 2025 | India | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 6, 2025 | India | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 5, 2025 | India | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 29, 2025 | India | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 27, 2025 | India | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 13, 2025 | India | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 13, 2025 | India | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 12, 2025 | India | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 8, 2025 | India | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 2, 2025 | India | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “India”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “India” at 14 of 18 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 2, 2025 (78%), most recently on Sep 22, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “India” next time?
- 53%, from settlement history (n=18). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘India’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/india (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=india · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP