Will Donald Trump say “Nuclear” 5+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Nuclear” 5+ times at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jan 17, 2026 (25%), most recently on Sep 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 42% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (5+, named speaker only) in 4. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Nuclear 5+ times
- Probability
- 42% · n=4
- Settled
- 1/4 (25%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…a little bit. Small price to pay, but we took out the nuclear power from Iran cuz yours is going to go down. They gave…
…I said we have to go and stop them from having a nuclear weapon. If they had a nuclear weapon, you wouldn't be very comfortable.…
…Texas, Louisiana, all parts of our country. Millions and millions of barrels of oil. I terminated Barack Hussein Obama's JCPOA or the Iran nuclear deal,
…it's a small price to pay for not letting Iran have a nuclear weapon. And they will never have a nuclear weapon. That's already --…
…bully no more. From the first day I entered the political arena, I've been unwavering. I will never allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Nuclear 5+ times |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Nuclear 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | 9 |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Nuclear 5+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 17, 2026 | Nuclear 5+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Nuclear 5+ times”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Nuclear” 5+ times at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jan 17, 2026 (25%), most recently on Sep 22, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Nuclear 5+ times” next time?
- 42%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Nuclear 5+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/nuclear-5plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=nuclear%20%285%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP