Donald Trump: Interview, Sep 18, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during Fox Interview with Martha Maccallum?
Polymarket What will Trump during the Fox News interview on September 18?
Markets
48 words · 23 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 73%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 70%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 58%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| DC / Capital | Yes | 57%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | Yes | 55%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Biden 3+ times | Yes | 52%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | Yes | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | Yes | 47%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Trade / Deal | Yes | 45%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 44%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| China 5+ times | Yes | 44%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok | Yes | 44%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Queen | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| President Xi / Xi | Yes | 41%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Speech | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Youth | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 10+ times | Yes | 39%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Seven Wars | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tremendous | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | Yes | 37%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Charlie / Kirk | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil | Yes | 35%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Sanction | Yes | 29%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 55%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| National Guard | No | 53%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 52%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Stupid | No | 50%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Women's sports | No | 47%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| RICO | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| New York | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crime | No | 44%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 43%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Kash / Patel | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Chicago | No | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro / Venezuela | No | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Gaza / Israel | No | 41%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Buckingham / Windsor | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cuomo | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hamas | No | 41%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Memphis | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel / Gaza / Hamas 7+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Country was dead / Dead country | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Butler | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Deal 15+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mugged | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Keir / Starmer | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Powell / Too Late | No | 36%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 9%n=119 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25SEP18-2 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP