Will Donald Trump say “ISIS”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “ISIS” at 5 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 10, 2025 (56%), most recently on May 6, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 51% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 5/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes no yes yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
ISIS
- Probability
- 51% · n=9
- Settled
- 5/9 (56%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…You can't do that. And when you do that, the problem is -- is greatly exacerbated. So, he'll be landing soon, relatively soon, and I…
…country is, you know, I told this story last night. Our country is is doing unbelievable. We had a pundit, an economic pundit, and we…
…the United States Armed Forces to eliminate them. The cartels are the ISIS of the Western Hemisphere, not good people, their enemies at war with…
Every settled listing
newest first · 9 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2026 | ISIS |  Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (8 of 9 known appearances transcribed)) |
| May 31, 2026 | ISIS |  Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| May 20, 2026 | ISIS | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 6, 2026 | ISIS | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Feb 13, 2026 | ISIS | Polymarket | No | – |
| Dec 29, 2025 | ISIS | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Dec 28, 2025 | ISIS | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Dec 19, 2025 | ISIS | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Nov 10, 2025 | ISIS | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “ISIS”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “ISIS” at 5 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 10, 2025 (56%), most recently on May 6, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “ISIS” next time?
- 51%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘ISIS’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/isis (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=isis · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP