Will Donald Trump say “Afghanistan”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Afghanistan” at 3 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 4, 2024 (33%), most recently on Feb 24, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 36% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 3/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no yes no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Afghanistan
- Probability
- 36% · n=9
- Settled
- 3/9 (33%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 10 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 2026 | Afghanistan |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| May 20, 2026 | Afghanistan | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Afghanistan | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Afghanistan | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Afghanistan | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Afghanistan | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jun 10, 2025 | Afghanistan | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jun 10, 2025 | Afghanistan |  Kalshi | No | – |
| May 24, 2025 | Afghanistan | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 4, 2024 | Afghanistan | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Afghanistan”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Afghanistan” at 3 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 4, 2024 (33%), most recently on Feb 24, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Afghanistan” next time?
- 36%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Afghanistan’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/afghanistan (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=afghanistan · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP