What is the probability Donald Trump says “Pilot / Crew / Staff 5+ times” next time?

48%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Donald Trump say “Pilot / Crew / Staff” 5+ times?

Name: Donald Trump: “Pilot / Crew / Staff 5+ times” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Pilot / Crew / Staff” 5+ times at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Apr 6, 2026.

Of the last 2 press conferences we have transcripts for (Jun 17, 2026 – Jul 8, 2026), it reached the market's count (5+, named speaker only) in 0.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
Streak: said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 07:18 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Pilot / Crew / Staff 5+ times

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 1/1 (100%)
Last 2 press conferences: said in 0 of 2

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in Florida · Oct 23, 2026 · 23:48In transcript

…to land in the mud. No, it's true. Thank God they're great pilots. They're the best pilots in the world. The nice part about being…

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Roundtable · Oct 21, 2026 · 4:03In transcript

…the way -- Secretary of Homeland Security Markwayne Mullin, Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, FBI Director Kash Patel, Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton,…

Donald TrumpspeakerRemarks in an Exchange With Reporters Upon Arrival From Joint Base Andrews, Maryland · Sep 23, 2026 · 0:26In transcript

First of all, the pilot said it's really nice not to land in grass, and it's also nice when you get off not to walk…

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 1 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result
Apr 6, 2026	Pilot / Crew / Staff 5+ times	Polymarket	Yes

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Pilot / Crew / Staff 5+ times”?: As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Pilot / Crew / Staff” 5+ times at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Apr 6, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Pilot / Crew / Staff 5+ times” next time?: 48%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Pilot / Crew / Staff 5+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/crew-or-pilot-or-staff-5plus (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=crew%20%2F%20pilot%20%2F%20staff%20%285%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP