# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · presser 2026-04-06 · 61 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26APR06B · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-news-conference-on-april-6 · as_of 2026-10-24T17:29:12Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2026-04-06 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 presser transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26APR06B ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of News Conference, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-during-news-conference-on-april-6 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the news conference scheduled for April 6, 2026 at 1PM ET.
# rows 1-33 of 61 by p · more: offset=33 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	1	KP	221	153	0.69	YYYnYnYYnY	1	1	0.67	hist	yes
Democrat	democrat	1	K	116	78	0.67	YYYnYYYnnn	1	1	0.67	hist	yes
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	1	K	59	41	0.69	YYYYYYnYYn	1	0	0.66	hist	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	1	K	126	81	0.64	YYYnYYnnnY	1	1	0.65	hist	yes
China	china	1	P	138	89	0.64	YYnnnYYYYn	1	1	0.61	hist	no
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	K	20	13	0.65	nnYYnYYYnY	1	1	0.6	hist	yes
Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration	obliterate|obliterated|obliteration	1	K	18	11	0.61	YYYnnYYnYY	1	1	0.6	hist	yes
Oil	oil	1	K	62	31	0.5	nYYYnnYYYY	1	1	0.59	hist	yes
Midnight Hammer	midnight hammer	1	K	14	10	0.71	YYYYYYYnnY	1	1	0.57	hist	no
Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline	1	K	22	15	0.68	YnnYnYnYYY	1	1	0.57	hist	no
Trump	trump	1	K	53	32	0.6	YYnYYYYYnY	1	1	0.55	hist	yes
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	1	K	16	8	0.5	YnnYYYYnnY	1	1	0.53	hist	yes
Obama	obama	1	P	19	11	0.58	nnnYYnnYYY	1	0	0.52	hist	yes
Iran (5+ times)	iran#5	5	K	3	3	1	YYY	1	1	0.51	hist	yes
Venezuela	venezuela	1	KP	21	13	0.62	YYnYYYnYYY	1	1	0.51	hist	yes
Fake News	fake new	1	K	82	45	0.55	nYnYYYYnnn	1	1	0.51	hist	yes
Make a Deal	make a deal	1	P	4	4	1	YYYY	1	1	0.5	hist	yes
Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation	negotiate|negotiated|negotiation	1	K	9	6	0.67	YnYYnYYYn	1	0	0.5	hist	yes
Equipment	equipment	1	P	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.49	hist	yes
Hormuz	hormuz	1	K	28	10	0.36	nnnYYnYYYn	1	0	0.48	hist	no
Moon	moon	1	P	4	1	0.25	nnYn	1	1	0.48	hist	no
Easter / Egg	easter|egg	1	P	0	0			1	1	0.48	hist	yes
ISIS	isis	1	P	5	3	0.6	nYYYn	1	1	0.47	hist	yes
Marco / Rubio	marco|rubio	1	K	19	8	0.42	YnYYYnnnnn	1	0	0.47	hist	no
Peace / War 3+ times	peace|war#3	3	P	0	0			1	1	0.47	hist	yes
Afghanistan	afghanistan	1	P	5	3	0.6	YYnnY	1	1	0.46	hist	no
New Regime / Regime Change	new regime|regime change	1	P	0	0			1	0	0.46	hist	yes
NATO	nato	1	KP	59	29	0.49	YYnYnnYnnn	1	1	0.45	hist	yes
Deal / Settle	deal|settle	1	K	3	3	1	YYY	1	1	0.44	hist	yes
NASA / Moon	moon|nasa	1	K	2	2	1	YY	1	1	0.44	hist	no
Obliterated / Obliteration	obliterated|obliteration	1	P	11	5	0.45	YnYnYnnYYn	1	1	0.44	hist	yes
Iran / Iranian 15+ times	iran|iranian#15	15	P	0	0			1	0	0.44	hist	yes
Epic Fury	epic fury	1	K	29	12	0.41	YYYnnYnYYn	1	0	0.42	hist	yes