Will Donald Trump say “CIA / Ratcliffe”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “CIA / Ratcliffe” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Apr 6, 2026.
Of the last 2 press conferences we have transcripts for (Jun 17, 2026 – Jul 8, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
–too little history for a probability (n=1)
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
CIA / Ratcliffe
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 2 press conferences
- said in 0 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2026 | CIA / Ratcliffe |  Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “CIA / Ratcliffe”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “CIA / Ratcliffe” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Apr 6, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “CIA / Ratcliffe” next time?
- 48%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘CIA / Ratcliffe’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/cia-or-ratcliffe (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=cia%20%2F%20ratcliffe · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP