Will Donald Trump say “Panama”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump said “Panama” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 9, 2025 (33%), most recently on Mar 4, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 39% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 rallies, 3 remarks; Sep 25, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 26, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 56¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Panama
- Probability
- 39% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown
Polymarket
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Panama”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump said “Panama” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 9, 2025 (33%), most recently on Mar 4, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Panama” next time?
- 39%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Panama’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/panama (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=panama · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP