Will Donald Trump say “Hell”?

As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Hell” at 21 of 45 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 20, 2025 (47%), most recently on Oct 2, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 59% (n=45, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4.

59%from settlement history only · n=45counts: named speaker only
Last 10
5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no yes yes no no no yes yes
Streak
said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Hell

Probability
59% · n=45
Settled
21/45 (47%)
Last 8 rallies
said in 4 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in Florida · Oct 23, 2026 · 4:07In transcript

…"Thank you very much, everybody." And I left. I said, "Who the hell was that guy?" And that's where it began, right? That's where it…

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in Iowa · Oct 22, 2026 · 3:05In transcript

…know, I shouldn't say I shouldn't break, should I? Yeah. What the hell difference? Which I won all three times, receiving more votes than any…

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Roundtable · Oct 21, 2026 · 4:14In transcript

…National Cyber Director Sean Camon -- where are you, Sean? Where the hell is you? I got to get this name so perfect -- Cairncross.…

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in South Carolina · Oct 21, 2026 · 9:49In transcript

…It would be a disaster. She's a fanatical transgender activist. How the hell do you run in South Carolina? Am I in a different state?…

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Announcement · Oct 20, 2026 · 1:10:55In transcript

…talking about some -- you got to remove people, get them the hell out, or they're not going to have a -- they're not going…

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 45 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 2, 2026HellPolymarketYes–
Oct 1, 2026HellPolymarketYes–
Sep 11, 2026HellPolymarketNo0
Sep 8, 2026HellPolymarketNo0
Aug 6, 2026HellPolymarketNo0
Aug 3, 2026HellPolymarketYes1
Jul 28, 2026HellPolymarketYes–
Jul 7, 2026HellPolymarketNo0
Jul 3, 2026HellPolymarketYes1
Jun 15, 2026HellPolymarketNo0
Jun 11, 2026HellPolymarketYes–
May 20, 2026HellPolymarketYes–
May 10, 2026HellPolymarketYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window))
May 3, 2026HellPolymarketNo– (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window))
Apr 12, 2026HellPolymarketYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window))
Apr 1, 2026HellPolymarketNo–
Mar 4, 2026HellPolymarketYes–
Feb 19, 2026HellPolymarketYes–
Feb 11, 2026HellPolymarketNo–
Feb 10, 2026HellPolymarketNo–
Feb 6, 2026HellPolymarketNo–
Feb 5, 2026HellPolymarketNo–
Jan 22, 2026HellPolymarketNo–
Jan 17, 2026HellPolymarketNo–
Jan 4, 2026HellPolymarketYes– (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet))
Jan 3, 2026HellPolymarketYes–
Dec 29, 2025HellPolymarketYes–
Dec 28, 2025HellPolymarketNo–
Dec 24, 2025HellPolymarketNo–
Dec 22, 2025HellPolymarketNo–
Dec 18, 2025HellPolymarketNo–
Dec 16, 2025HellPolymarketYes–
Nov 25, 2025HellPolymarketYes–
Nov 21, 2025HellPolymarketNo–
Nov 12, 2025HellPolymarketNo–
Oct 7, 2025HellPolymarketYes–
Sep 29, 2025HellPolymarketYes–
Sep 18, 2025HellPolymarketNo–
Sep 8, 2025HellPolymarketYes–
Aug 16, 2025HellKalshiNo–
Jul 12, 2025HellPolymarketNo–
May 24, 2025HellPolymarketYes–
May 21, 2025HellPolymarketYes–
Mar 4, 2025HellKalshiNo–
Jan 20, 2025HellPolymarketNo–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Hell”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Hell” at 21 of 45 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 20, 2025 (47%), most recently on Oct 2, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Hell” next time?
59%, from settlement history (n=45). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Hell’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/hell (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=hell · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP