Will Donald Trump say “Trans / Transgender”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Trans / Transgender” at 4 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 18, 2025 (67%), most recently on Jul 3, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 4/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Trans / Transgender
- Probability
- 40% · n=6
- Settled
- 4/6 (67%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…sponsor of a bill to let schools turn children, all of them transgender if they want, without parental without parental consent. I would say she's…
…with that record. Turk voted to allow schools to turn your children transgender without informing the parents and with no parental consent. I didn't even…
…in the entire country. It would be a disaster. She's a fanatical transgender activist. How the hell do you run in South Carolina? Am I…
…spend their time criticizing the United States for protecting our children from transgender utilization and transgender insanity, and enforcing our immigration laws. What they do…
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 2025 | Trans / Transgender |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Jul 3, 2025 | Trans / Transgender | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jun 6, 2025 | Trans / Transgender | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Mar 26, 2025 | Trans / Transgender |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 4, 2025 | Trans/Transgender | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Feb 18, 2025 | Trans/Transgender | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Trans / Transgender”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Trans / Transgender” at 4 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 18, 2025 (67%), most recently on Jul 3, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Trans / Transgender” next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Trans / Transgender’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/tran-or-transgender (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=tran%20%2F%20transgender · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP