# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · speech 2025-03-04 · 62 words · K k:KXDJTJOINTSESSION-25MAR04 · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-state-of-the-union · as_of 2026-10-25T05:11:32Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2025-03-04 · tn/th blank: no speech transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXDJTJOINTSESSION-25MAR04 ({word} = w of K rows): If President Trump says {word} as part of his speech to Congress on March 4, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-during-state-of-the-union (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the 2025 State of the Union address.
# rows 1-39 of 62 by p · more: offset=39 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Putin	putin	1	P	12	10	0.83	YYnYYnYYYY	0.62	hist	yes
Trans	tran	1	K	37	28	0.76	YYYYYYnYnn	0.6	hist	no
Million 10+ times	million#10	10	P	12	9	0.75	YYYYnYYYnn	0.59	hist	yes
China 5+ times	china#5	5	P	12	10	0.83	YYYYYYYnYY	0.58	hist	yes
Biden	biden	1	K	9	7	0.78	YYYYYnYYn	0.58	hist	yes
Israel	israel	1	K	17	13	0.76	YYYYnYnnYn	0.54	hist	yes
Drill Baby Drill	drill baby drill	1	K	16	11	0.69	nYYYYYYnYY	0.53	hist	yes
Elon/Musk	elon|musk	1	P	6	4	0.67	YYYYnn	0.53	hist	yes
God 4+ times	god#4	4	K	6	5	0.83	YnYYYY	0.52	hist	yes
Russia	russia	1	K	5	4	0.8	YYYYn	0.52	hist	yes
Trans/Transgender	tran|transgender	1	P	1	1	1	Y	0.51	hist	yes
Hamas	hama	1	P	5	3	0.6	YYnnY	0.49	hist	no
Mexico 5+ times	mexico#5	5	P	1	1	1	Y	0.48	hist	yes
Pam / Bondi	bondi|pam	1	K	1	1	1	Y	0.48	hist	yes
Russia 3+ times	russia#3	3	P	1	1	1	Y	0.48	hist	yes
Zelenskyy	zelenskyy	1	P	1	1	1	Y	0.48	hist	yes
Border 5+ times	border#5	5	K	11	7	0.64	YnYYYnYnnY	0.48	hist	yes
America 15+ times	america#15	15	K	1	1	1	Y	0.47	hist	yes
Los Angeles	los angele	1	K	1	1	1	Y	0.47	hist	yes
Mandate 3+ times	mandate#3	3	K	1	1	1	Y	0.47	hist	yes
America First	america first	1	K	3	2	0.67	YYn	0.47	hist	yes
Inflation 10+ times	inflation#10	10	P	3	2	0.67	nYY	0.47	hist	no
Canada	canada	1	KP	1	1	1	Y	0.46	hist	yes
Vladimir / Putin	putin|vladimir	1	K	3	1	0.33	nYn	0.46	hist	yes
Rig/Rigged	rig|rigged	1	K	9	6	0.67	YYnYYYYnn	0.45	hist	no
Ukraine	ukraine	1	KP	3	2	0.67	YnY	0.45	hist	yes
Mexico	mexico	1	K	3	2	0.67	YYn	0.44	hist	yes
DEI/Diversity Equity and Inclusion	dei|diversity equity and inclusion	1	P	3	1	0.33	nnY	0.44	hist	yes
Volodymyr / Zelenskyy	volodymyr|zelenskyy	1	K	0	0			0.44	hist	yes
McDonald	mcdonald	1	K	25	16	0.64	YYYYnnnnnn	0.43	hist	no
Elon Musk	elon musk	1	K	12	6	0.5	nYYnYYYnnn	0.43	hist	yes
Mineral	mineral	1	P	3	1	0.33	Ynn	0.43	hist	yes
Tariff 5+ times	tariff#5	5	P	4	1	0.25	nnnY	0.42	hist	yes
TikTok	tiktok	1	K	6	3	0.5	YnYYnn	0.39	hist	no
Gaza	gaza	1	K	6	2	0.33	YnnYnn	0.39	hist	yes
Carnage	carnage	1	K	1	0	0	n	0.39	hist	no
DOGE / "Department of Government Efficiency"	department of government efficiency|doge	1	KP	1	0	0	n	0.39	hist	yes
Hell	hell	1	K	1	0	0	n	0.39	hist	no
Illegal Immigrant/Immigration	illegal immigrant|immigration	1	K	1	0	0	n	0.39	hist	yes