Will Donald Trump say “Elon Musk”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Elon Musk” at 7 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 15, 2024 (54%), most recently on Mar 4, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 47% (n=13, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 6 speeches we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes yes yes no no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Elon Musk
- Probability
- 47% · n=13
- Settled
- 7/13 (54%)
- Last 6 speeches
- said in 0 of 6
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…has been an incredible partner to law enforcement, as has X and Elon Musk. In April, FBI and the Dubai Police announced the arrest of…
…things people have seen ever in government. And I want to thank Elon Musk. You saw what he was doing. He's -- one share to…
Every settled listing
newest first · 13 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2025 | Elon Musk |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 22, 2025 | Elon Musk |  Polymarket | No |
| Jan 21, 2025 | Elon Musk | Polymarket | No |
| Jan 20, 2025 | Elon Musk | Polymarket | No |
| Jan 19, 2025 | Elon Musk | Polymarket | Yes |
| Jan 7, 2025 | Elon Musk | Polymarket | Yes |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Elon Musk | Polymarket | Yes |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Elon Musk | Polymarket | No |
| Sep 27, 2024 | Elon Musk | Polymarket | Yes |
| Sep 16, 2024 | Elon Musk | Polymarket | Yes |
| Sep 10, 2024 | Elon Musk | Polymarket | No |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Elon Musk | Polymarket | No |
| Aug 15, 2024 | Elon Musk | Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Elon Musk”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Elon Musk” at 7 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 15, 2024 (54%), most recently on Mar 4, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Elon Musk” next time?
- 47%, from settlement history (n=13). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Elon Musk’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/elon-musk (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=elon%20musk · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP