Will Donald Trump say “Mexico”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Mexico” at 13 of 19 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 24, 2024 (68%), most recently on Aug 5, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 36% (n=19, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 5.
- Last 10
- 6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes yes yes no no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Mexico
- Probability
- 36% · n=19
- Settled
- 13/19 (68%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…even believe. Did you like the change of the name Gulf of Mexico to you know it never made sense to me because 93% of…
…car plants are all coming in from Canada, they're coming in from Mexico, they're coming in from Germany and Japan, South Korea. You know, they…
…ones are coming in from all over the world. From Canada, from Mexico, from Germany, they come from China. They're coming from all over the
…business and we have deficits with almost everybody -- Canada, $90 billion; Mexico, $175 billion; European Union, $225 billion. We're cutting them way back to…
…ago, we terminated the leader of the Venezuelan gang, Tren de Aragua Mexico is the epicenter of the cartel violence. Unfortunately, it's unacceptable for the…
Every settled listing
newest first · 20 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Mexico |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Mexico | Polymarket | Yes | 8 |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Mexico | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Mexico | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| May 7, 2026 | Mexico |  Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Mexico | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Mexico | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 19, 2025 | Mexico | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Mexico | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 4, 2025 | Mexico | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 8, 2025 | Mexico | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 1, 2025 | Mexico | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Apr 30, 2025 | Mexico | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 2, 2025 | Mexico | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 24, 2025 | Mexico | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 11, 2025 | Mexico | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 4, 2025 | Mexico | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 22, 2025 | Mexico | Polymarket | No | – |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Mexico | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 24, 2024 | Mexico | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Mexico”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Mexico” at 13 of 19 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 24, 2024 (68%), most recently on Aug 5, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Mexico” next time?
- 36%, from settlement history (n=19). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Mexico’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/mexico (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=mexico · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP