Will Donald Trump say “Illegal Immigrant/Immigration”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Illegal Immigrant/Immigration” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 20, 2025 (50%), most recently on Mar 4, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 47% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 6 speeches we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Illegal Immigrant/Immigration
- Probability
- 47% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 6 speeches
- said in 3 of 6
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…at some of these guys, these thugs. They're not students. It's illegal immigration is what it is. It's people coming into a country that hate…
…them in and that's what you're going to have. That's what they have. They have a they have an immigration. They'd like to say, "Oh,
…people think it's a little controversial, I don't care -- it's an immigration problem. You had people that poured into France and they were also…
…protecting our children from transgender utilization and transgender insanity, and enforcing our immigration laws. What they do is unbelievable what they do. It's transgender mutilation…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2025 | Illegal Immigrant/Immigration |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 20, 2025 | Illegal Immigrant/Immigration |  Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Illegal Immigrant/Immigration”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Illegal Immigrant/Immigration” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 20, 2025 (50%), most recently on Mar 4, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Illegal Immigrant/Immigration” next time?
- 47%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Illegal Immigrant/Immigration’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/illegal-immigrant-or-immigration (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=illegal%20immigrant%20%2F%20immigration · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP