Will Donald Trump say “Hamas”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Hamas” at 17 of 28 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 4, 2024 (61%), most recently on Feb 19, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 44% (n=28, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 8/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes yes yes yes yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Hamas
- Probability
- 44% · n=28
- Settled
- 17/28 (61%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…many, many, many more things. And we got all of the 28 Hamas hostages returned to their families, both living and dead, and hundreds before…
And we got all 28 Hamas hostages returned to their families, both living and dead, and hundreds before that. We got them all returned. Got…
…were raging. Egypt and Ethiopia, Armenia, Azerbaijan. We got all the 28 Hamas hostages returned to their families, both living and dead, and hundreds before…
…this hall, the war in Gaza was still raging brutally. The hostages were still deep in Hamas tunnels and there was no end in sight.
Every settled listing
newest first · 30 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 2026 | Hamas |  Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) | – |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Hamas | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Feb 19, 2026 | HAMAS |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jan 23, 2026 | Hamas | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 30, 2025 | Hamas | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Hamas | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 21, 2025 | Hamas | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Hamas | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Hamas | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Hamas | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Hamas | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Hamas | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Hamas | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 7, 2025 | Hamas | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Hamas | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 29, 2025 | Hamas | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 29, 2025 | Hamas | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 18, 2025 | Hamas | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 18, 2025 | Hamas | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 21, 2025 | Hamas | Polymarket | No | – |
| May 14, 2025 | Hamas | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 1, 2025 | Hamas | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 8, 2025 | Hamas | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 27, 2025 | Hamas | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 4, 2025 | Hamas | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 4, 2025 | Hamas | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Hamas | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Hamas | Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 10, 2024 | Hamas | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 4, 2024 | Hamas | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Hamas”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Hamas” at 17 of 28 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 4, 2024 (61%), most recently on Feb 19, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Hamas” next time?
- 44%, from settlement history (n=28). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Hamas’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/hama (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=hama · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP