Will Donald Trump say “Carnage”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Carnage” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 20, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 0/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Carnage
- Probability
- 41% · n=3
- Settled
- 0/3 (0%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Iranian regime has ruled by bloodshed and mass murder, spreading death and carnage and chaos across the entire Middle East and beyond. They were the…
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
Kalshi
PolymarketQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Carnage”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Carnage” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 20, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Carnage” next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Carnage’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/carnage (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=carnage · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP