Will Donald Trump say “Tariff” 5+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Tariff” 5+ times at 5 of 17 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Oct 31, 2024 (29%), most recently on Nov 19, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 34% (n=17, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (5+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no yes yes no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Tariff 5+ times
- Probability
- 34% · n=17
- Settled
- 5/17 (29%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…more now because we're a little longer than that. Thanks to my tariffs, my favorite word, I have to tell you. But no longer. It's…
…Look, they all remember 28 billion dollars. It all came out of tariffs. My my fifth favorite word used to be my favorite word, but…
…in big trouble with a B. 22 billion dollars. I impose historic tariffs. One of my all-time favorite words. It used to be my favorite…
…special relationships to this day, very, very special trade, the use of tariffs and the threat of tariffs and various other reasons depending on the…
Every settled listing
newest first · 17 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Tariff 5+ times |  Polymarket | No | 2 |
| May 22, 2026 | Tariff 5+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Tariff 5+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 7, 2026 | Tariff 5+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Nov 19, 2025 | Tariff 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 25, 2025 | Tariff 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Tariff 5+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jul 22, 2025 | Tariff 5+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| May 21, 2025 | Tariff 5+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| May 12, 2025 | Tariff 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Apr 24, 2025 | Tariff 5+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 12, 2025 | Tariff 5+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 4, 2025 | Tariff 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Feb 27, 2025 | Tariff 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Feb 24, 2025 | Tariff 5+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 9, 2025 | Tariff 5+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 31, 2024 | Tariff 5+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Tariff 5+ times”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Tariff” 5+ times at 5 of 17 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Oct 31, 2024 (29%), most recently on Nov 19, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Tariff 5+ times” next time?
- 34%, from settlement history (n=17). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Tariff 5+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/tariff-5plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=tariff%20%285%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP