Will Donald Trump say “China” 5+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “China” 5+ times at 17 of 26 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 7, 2024 (65%), most recently on Feb 19, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 31% (n=26, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (5+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes no yes yes yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
China (5+ times)
- Probability
- 31% · n=26
- Settled
- 17/26 (65%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…fake news says, "Why does he spend time on the white?" Well, I don't like having the head of China come into the White House
…in the United States of America. We don't want you going to China. We don't want you going to Japan. We don't want you going…
…say that a very important element is the fact that Russia and China have not participated or participated in a much smaller way than they…
…ones are coming in from all over the world. From Canada, from Mexico, from Germany, they come from China. They're coming from all over the
…we're building more car plants than we've ever built before. We're leading China in SI, super intelligence. We're leading them. We're leading everybody. We're leading…
Every settled listing
newest first · 28 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | China 5+ times |  Polymarket | No |
| Sep 24, 2026 | China 5+ times | Polymarket | No |
| Sep 24, 2026 | China (5+ times) |  Kalshi | No |
| Sep 24, 2026 | China (5+ times) | Kalshi | No |
| Mar 27, 2026 | China 5+ times | Polymarket | No |
| Feb 19, 2026 | China 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
| Dec 9, 2025 | China 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
| Nov 5, 2025 | China 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
| Oct 29, 2025 | China 5+ times | Polymarket | No |
| Sep 18, 2025 | China 5+ times | Polymarket | No |
| Sep 18, 2025 | China 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
| Jul 15, 2025 | China 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
| Apr 15, 2025 | China 5+ times | Polymarket | No |
| Apr 8, 2025 | China 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
| Mar 11, 2025 | China 5+ times | Polymarket | No |
| Mar 4, 2025 | China 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
| Oct 30, 2024 | China 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
| Oct 29, 2024 | China 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
| Oct 27, 2024 | China 5+ times | Polymarket | No |
| Oct 25, 2024 | China 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
| Oct 21, 2024 | China 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
| Sep 24, 2024 | China 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
| Sep 21, 2024 | China 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
| Sep 18, 2024 | China 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
| Sep 17, 2024 | China 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
| Sep 13, 2024 | China 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
| Sep 12, 2024 | China 5+ times | Polymarket | No |
| Sep 7, 2024 | China 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “China (5+ times)”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “China” 5+ times at 17 of 26 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 7, 2024 (65%), most recently on Feb 19, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “China (5+ times)” next time?
- 31%, from settlement history (n=26). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘China (5+ times)’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/china-5plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=china%20%285%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP