Will Donald Trump say “Los Angeles”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Los Angeles” at 4 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 20, 2025 (80%), most recently on Aug 7, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 56% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 4/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Los Angeles
- Probability
- 56% · n=5
- Settled
- 4/5 (80%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | Los Angeles |  Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Los Angeles | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jun 17, 2025 | Los Angeles |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 4, 2025 | Los Angeles | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 20, 2025 | Los Angeles | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Los Angeles”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Los Angeles” at 4 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 20, 2025 (80%), most recently on Aug 7, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Los Angeles” next time?
- 56%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Los Angeles’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/los-angele (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=los%20angele · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP