Remarks transcript, Jul 31, 2026 (Donald Trump)
In remarks on Jul 31, 2026, Donald Trump said 21 of the 48 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 30 of 30 checked settlements. Full transcript below (presidency.ucsb.edu, public domain).
UpdatedMarkets
48 words · 21 settled yes · our count agreed on 30 of 30- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 9 | 10 | ✓ | 58%n=319 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 8 | 18 | ✓ | 64%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Deal / Settle | Yes | 8 | 16 | ✓ | 62%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 50%n=116 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 53%n=215 from settlement history | – |
| First Term | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 47%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 5 | 6 | ✓ | 54%n=125 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 4 | 9 | ✓ | 43%n=82 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 51%n=199 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 39%n=147 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 30%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 60%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 48%n=154 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 43%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 1 | 7 | ✓ | 42%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 1 | 4 | ✓ | 38%n=81 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 38%n=197 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela | Yes | – | – | – | 73%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | Yes | – | – | – | 47%n=76 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Israel 10+ times | Yes | – | – | – | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Biden / Obama 10+ times | Yes | – | – | – | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Russia | No | – | – | – | 60%n=72 from settlement history | – |
| Coal | No | – | – | – | 59%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Trump Derangement Syndrome | No | – | – | – | 58%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Job 20+ times | No | – | – | – | 49%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 48%n=307 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 45%n=140 from settlement history | – |
| Space Force | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 43%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 42%n=91 from settlement history | – |
| Filibuster | No | – | – | – | 41%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Transparent | No | – | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 30+ times | No | – | – | – | 40%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Socialist | No | – | – | – | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | – | – | – | 39%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 38%n=79 from settlement history | – |
| Nazi / Hitler | No | – | – | – | 38%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Fauci | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | – | – | – | 37%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Fed / Federal Reserve | No | – | – | – | 37%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Dumbocrat / Dumocrat | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 36%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 36%n=212 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 3+ times | No | – | – | – | 35%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Tuition | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | 32%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Six Seven | No | – | – | – | 24%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 23%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 10%n=84 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 5%n=465 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
276 passages · part 2 of 2Official transcript · The American Presidency Project (UCSB), Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley · Source · Public domain (US government work): full text.
Questions and answers
How—we've seen these strikes between Iran and the United States for the past 10 days. How do you go about reviving the ceasefire and getting diplomacy back on track?
Well, I think we just want to win. You know, we just want to win. We're doing very well. We're trying to be nice—as nice as you can be in, you know, a situation like that.
But you know, they're being decimated. Look, they have no navy. They have no air force. They have no anti-aircraft. Doesn't mean they don't have any capability. They have some, but very little. We just want to win.
We don't want to have them—it's very simple: They cannot have a nuclear weapon. Iran will not have a nuclear weapon, and they can't have a nuclear weapon.
If they did, the Middle East would have been wiped out by now. If I didn't stop the JCPOA, the Obama deal—if I didn't terminate that, they would have had a nuclear weapon. I believe Israel would no longer be with us, and big parts of the Middle East, and perhaps other countries in different continents, frankly, because these people are crazy.
So they cannot have a nuclear weapon, and they won't.
Mr. President, Mr. President——
So what should—what should we expect over the next 4 weeks, 8 weeks?
Well, you know, we'll be hitting them. We'll be hitting them very hard. And, you know, at some point they're going to say, "We just can't take it anymore."
Mr. President, on the disarmament deal that you announced, do you have assurances from Israel that they are on board with this deal? And what comes first? Does Israel pull back and then Hamas disarms, or does Hamas need to disarm——
So——
and then Israel leaves Gaza?
So we do have an understanding with Israel. Israel is very happy about it. Israel helped us, and they've been very good. They've been very good about it. Most people said that would be a deal that would be undoable.
Now, will it go through its ups and down? It's a very complex situation over there. The people are very complex and difficult—many cases, wonderful; in many cases, not so wonderful. But that will be a—it's a great breakthrough. Nobody's ever thought that would—nobody thought that would be possible, to disarm Hamas.
That shows you how much success we're having with Iran, because if you go 4 months ago, 5 months ago, a deal like that would have been impossible.
So it's a big step for the Middle East, and people are really impressed by it, and they're surprised by it.
And what comes first, Mr. President? What comes first?
Mr. President, did FIFA or Mr. Infantino speak to you about their proposal to sell a stake in the World Cup? And is that something you support, having just——
——about who?
Did FIFA or Mr. Infantino speak to you about their proposal to sell a stake in the World Cup?
No, I never spoke to him about it.
Mr. President, on the—you said this morning on Truth Social that victims of Government abuse should be paid back.
Yes.
Even if it's not the anti-weaponization fund, would you still want the Acting Attorney General——
Well, I'm talking about the——
to find a new way to do that?
——weaponization against large numbers of people in our country by the Biden administration and by Obama, but by the Biden administration, in particular, in this case.
But large numbers of people, their lives have been ruined, they've been destroyed, their families have been, you know, decimated. They've gone to prison for no reason whatsoever. There's never been a group of people, most likely—I mean, I can think of a couple that were treated pretty badly—groups—but there's essentially never been a group of people treated so badly as these people.
And this fund was not for me. This fund was for those people that have been weaponized, that have been abused.
Now, I was abused. They attacked my house, Mar-a-Lago, where I live, and I was—you know, big damages should have been given to me. I don't want anything. I'm not talking about myself.
I think that there's a group of people in this country, history will show, that were treated like nobody else has ever been treated—so badly, so horribly. Their families have been ruined. Many, many suicides. They've committed suicide. People that were very successful that wanted to go to a rally or an event and ended up spending the rest of their lives in horror.
No, so I mean you can say what you want about the fund, and they've——
Do you still want to find a way——
——they've agreed to not have a fund. But there are a lot of people that are very upset about it. A lot of Republican people, a lot of Democrat people are very upset about it. A lot of people were covered.
I wasn't covered by that fund. I don't want to be covered by the fund. I probably was abused more than anybody in the history of our country, but I wasn't looking for that. But there were a lot of people.
And I'll tell you something: Todd Blanche is a very, very good man, and he shouldn't be in the middle of this. He should get approved because you will never get anybody like him. You're never going to get anybody.
And to make him a pawn in this whole thing—this is being done by a Senator, and I don't really blame him, to be honest with you. I endorsed his opponent, and as soon as I endorsed his opponent, his opponent went through the roof and he won the primary election in Texas for the Senate. And the man that lost—the man that I didn't endorse—has become very angry, and that's okay.
I mean, I understand that. I probably would do the same thing. You want to know the truth? I think I'd do the same thing.
Mr. President, on that though, do you agree—just to be clear, do you agree with the Acting Attorney General that the anti-weaponization fund is dead, and why not just put that in writing?
Well, it is dead, but, you know, I wish it weren't, to be honest with you. I think people were horribly treated, horribly abused—this has nothing to do with Todd; this was me—horribly abused, and I'd like to see them compensated for the pain.
They lost their families. They committed suicide. Many people committed suicide. They went down for an innocent journey.
And I'm not only talking there. I'm talking about not even having to do with that. The way they were treated. The Biden administration and the Obama administration weaponized Government and destroyed lives.
[ Inaudible ]—put it in writing?
Mr. President, are you willing to accept limits on the scope of the audit immunity deal in order to get Attorney General Blanche confirmed?
Well, no, he should be approved forthwith. I mean, he's—you're never going to get a person like that. Everybody agrees to it.
Don't forget, Senator Cornyn thought he was phenomenal until he lost. You know, when he lost——
That's true.
Is that a correct statement?
Yes.
You come from Texas.
Yes, it is.
I mean, he thought this was the most incredible person. And then when he lost—and he lost because of me. I endorsed somebody else, and as soon as I endorsed the other person, the other person became a rocket ship upward, and he lost. And you know, I think I'd be the same, if you want to know——
But would you accept limits on that immunity deal, sir?
I mean, I shouldn't say that, but I'd be upset also, and I—so I fully understand it. He shouldn't be that way. I shouldn't be that way. But he is that way. He's a—become a very angry person, and I understand it.
You have a couple of others that I've caused their defeat too, and you know, you'll probably hear from them too.
Yes.
Mr. President, back on Iran, there was a report that you got a proposal from the military to go big and hit them hard over 10 or 14 days. Are you——
Well, we're going big.
Are you going to consider that?
We've already gone big. Look, I mean, what's big? They had 159 ships. That was their entire navy: 159. Their entire navy is laying at the bottom of the sea. I'd say that's going big.
They had 200 airplanes. They're all gone. Every one of them. They don't have one airplane.
They had anti-aircraft weaponry—very good, but it didn't work, and it's all gone. Their radar is all gone. Their leaders are all gone. Everything's all gone, but they'll fight onward.
Mr. President, on Ukraine, you said the other day that you're not sure about whether to grant Ukraine the Patriot missile license that had been discussed. Do you want to see more from Zelenskyy before you take that action?
Well, it's a big step. Look, we have the greatest weapons in the world. We have the greatest drones in the world. People don't know that. We have the greatest weaponry in the world. We have—in the case of President Zelenskyy, he'd like to have some Patriots. They'd like to have some Tomahawks, which are, you know, lethal—one offensive, one defensive. But when you give somebody the right—they're very complex weapons, by the way.
I mean the Patriot—as an example, the other day you read that five missiles were shot. They were going 8,600 miles an hour. Think of it: 8,600. Now, a car—if you go 60, it gets to be a little fast. If you go 100—8,600, miles an hour, and they were big missiles, and they were shot at Jordan. And our guys were there: bing, bing, bing, bing, bing. Five. Bing, bing, bing, bing, bing.
Right? I don't want to be Biden. [ Laughter ]
[ Inaudible ]—six.
I had to be very careful. That would have been—that would have been a great soundbite, right?
There were five missiles, and we shot all five down before they got close. Nobody else has that capacity. These weapons are incredible, and we have to be very careful about letting somebody build them. You know, it's very important.
Now, we are building many plants now to make those and other—the Tomahawk missile is the most incredible thing. It can go into a doorway. You can put it through a window of a house. Nobody's ever seen anything like it. You have to be very judicious, but you have to be very careful.
Now, we have not agreed to that. We're talking about it, but it's a hard thing to give away that kind of technology. And I don't think this would ever happen, but, you know, those people that you give that technology, they can someday turn on you. You know, that is possible. You look at war. It's happened a couple of times over the years, right? So we have to be very careful. I mean, we guard that.
We have the greatest military in the world, but we have the greatest weapons in the world. Now we have to make them a little bit faster because we've given a lot away.
You know, President Biden, unfortunately, gave a lot away to Ukraine, and he gave—so did I. I mean, I gave them the Javelins, the tank busters. Without the Javelins, that war would have been a 1-day war. It would have been over.
They wiped out the tanks going up to Kyiv when they got stuck in the mud. They had a general that decided to go through the mud instead of going up the highway where they were going very nicely. It would have been over.
But no, I gave them the Javelins. The Javelins are unbelievably—we have the greatest weapons in the world. We have to be very careful about giving out the secrets to those weapons, and they're not—you can't copy them.
It's a little like Nvidia. They have a chip. They say you cannot copy it. The complexity is so great you cannot. You know, most things you copy. China is known for it. Other countries are. We do something. And I guess we copy also. But most things you can copy pretty easily.
There's a chip that they made, their ultimate chip. And they always have the ultimate chip. And I say, "Well, why doesn't somebody copy it?" Because they can't. The complexity.
They can't copy our weapons. We have the greatest weapons in the world. Many of them. Those are just two or three that I mentioned. But you cannot copy them.
So we have to be very careful.
Mr. President, on Iran——
Sir, as—as Hamas disarms as part of this plan, who do you see as taking possession of those weapons that they have? Does that go to the new government? Does it——
It would be the Board of Peace mostly. It's going to be run by the board. This Board of Peace has been an amazing—it's led by some amazing people. Board of Peace.
On Iran, Mr. President, you said they do have some capabilities left.
Yes.
Should Americans be prepared for these back-and-forth attacks to continue until Iran simply isn't able of striking back?
A little bit. They'll get weaker. They'll get weaker. They'll get a little stronger maybe now, but they'll get weaker, and then they peter out.
Yes, sure. I think so. I mean, it'd be foolish to say no. You know, you always have to keep your guard up.
What is the status of talks? Who from the administration is talking to the Iranians?
Well, they always want to talk, but they break their words so often. Steve is talking. Jared. We have very good people. J.D. is involved—very strongly involved. We have great people talking. Marco's involved. They're all involved.
Because they say talks aren't happening.
Very good people. We have the best people.
But they'll make a deal—as an example, we'll talk about nuclear, and we'll be in there talking about nuclear for 7 hours. I say: "Why does it—why do you need 7? You can take 10 minutes. You have 5 minutes, you should solve it." [ Laughter ] But 7 hours. And then they'll go out, and I'll say, "They discussed nuclear," and they'll go out and they'll say, "We never discussed nuclear." And I say: "Why? Why do they say that?" All they do is make me angry. You know, they just make me angry.
Any other questions?
Do you still believe that you can reach a deal with Iran, given that you talked about disloyal they are?
I guess you can. I mean, look, I'm losing faith in them because they do lie and do—they do misrepresent.
Well, the other day the five missiles were shot. We knocked them down, but we were in the midst of a negotiation. I mean, I'm waiting for Steve to call me—"How's the negotiation going?"—and instead, I got a call from Pete that they just shot five missiles at one of our bases in Jordan. You know, we have bases in Jordan. Fortunately, our people operated the equipment.
It's also very complex to operate. You know, you talk about the equipment. It's very—you have to be—oftentimes, you'll say—"Where did you go to school?" "MIT." "Caltech." I mean, you know, they go to schools that are not as normal for the military, to be honest with you. We have unbelievably brilliant people operating that equipment.
And when you don't, you know, the equipment—the shots miss. The safety misses, or the accuracy misses.
We have unbelievable people. Think of it. We had 111 at one point, a couple of months ago. A hundred and eleven, over a short period of time, missiles were shot at the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier—great, beautiful ship. One of the most beautiful ships to me, design-wise. A hundred and eleven missiles going out. Out of the hundred and eleven missiles, one hundred and —eleven missiles were shot down quite a bit earlier than—they got—I mean, long before they got there, they were shot down. It was almost—in a couple of cases, they were shot down almost as they were taking off. It's incredible technology.
So you have a ship that costs billions of dollars, and you have missiles heading to it. A hundred and eleven missiles were shot down—routinely shot down. And I speak—I spoke to the people. I like to reward people. I call them up, I'm the President, and they were cool as a cucumber.
Mr. President, the last 2 weeks of strikes by CENTCOM. CENTCOM has said that those were meant to degrade Iran's ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz.
And they did.
How many more strikes will it take to significantly obliterate it?
Well, you never know.
Look, I mean, most people would have given up by now. You know? They've got no navy. They've got no air force. They—most people would have given up. They haven't. So I give them credit for that. I mean, they're known as being tough. They're tough.
Back on Ukraine.
Steve.
What did you tell President Zelenskyy about the Patriots? Did you explain all that to him, your concerns about——
I did. I spoke about Patriots. I spoke to him about Tomahawks. I spoke to him about everything. I also spoke to him about let's get this war over with.
So, last month, they had 25,000 people—it's averaging about 25,000 people a month die. Mostly soldiers. Almost entirely, but you know, missiles are hitting areas also. But mostly soldiers. They had 25,000 soldiers. The month before that, it was 32,000 soldiers.
I said, "You've got to get this war over with."
I think he wants to make a deal, and I think Putin wants to make a deal. But there's a lot of dislike, as you probably noticed.
But he seems very reluctant to make concessions—President Putin, I mean.
Well, nobody wants to make concessions, but they're both going to have to make some concessions. I mean, you've got to make a deal. Twenty-five thousand young, beautiful people—soldiers—mostly soldiers are dying a month.
It's—I ended eight wars. That was the war I thought would maybe go first, and it really hasn't. It's gone last. I mean, I ended wars that were, in theory, much more difficult to end. We had a couple that were into the 30-year category.
Well, the Congo—look at the Congo and Rwanda. That was a nasty war. And they have peace. I don't know how long that one's going to stay.
But we ended India-Pakistan. Eleven planes were shot down. That was raging. That was going to—I used tariffs. I said, "If you're going to go to war, 250-percent tariff" to each of them. And they screamed and yelled and were very angry. They were both angry about it. And a day later, they called, and they said, "We will not go to war." I mean, I ended up—and the Prime Minister of Pakistan said I saved 50 million lives, because that's two nuclear powers—serious nuclear powers.
Thank you very much, everybody. Thank you.
Enjoy——
Enjoy Camp David.
Can you rule out that Iran was behind the water attacks? Can you rule out that Iran was behind that cyber attack?
I don't think so. No, I think that Minnesota is behind it. You know who's behind it? Minnesota, because they're grossly incompetent. I think the Governor is behind it. I don't think there was an Iranian cyber attack. I think that Minnesota ought to get its act together. It's one of the worst-run States.
J.D. will tell you. He found tremendous corruption in Minnesota.
Yes, sir.
And by the way, just gave me a report: Massive—massive future things having to do with corruption in Minnesota are happening right now.
Thank you very much.
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