Donald Trump: Monthly window, Nov 1, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say in October?
Coverage
0 known appearancesno known appearances yet Window: Oct 1, 2025 to Nov 1, 2025. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
21 words · 16 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | – | 0 | 66%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | – | 0 | 64%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Newscum | Yes | – | 0 | 61%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Fat shot / Ozempic | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Predict / Prediction | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Slopadopoulos | Yes | – | 0 | 58%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Crooked Hillary | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AOC | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pelosi | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Autism | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Moscow | Yes | – | 0 | 53%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | Yes | – | 0 | 52%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Taylor / Swift | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | Yes | – | 0 | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hunter | Yes | – | 0 | 43%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Yes | – | 0 | 33%n=129 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bird | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Clapper | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Whack Job | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epstein | No | – | 0 | 42%n=18 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAYMONTH-25NOV01 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP