Donald Trump: Interview, Apr 30, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Newsmax interview?
Markets
21 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 69%n=129 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 64%n=69 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 61%n=66 from settlement history | – |
| Filibuster | Yes | 50%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | Yes | 46%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Rating / Ratings / Rated | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 38%n=134 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | Yes | 33%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | Yes | 31%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 67%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Genius | No | 63%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 63%n=237 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | No | 63%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Thug | No | 56%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | No | 56%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 54%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| King | No | 53%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 47%n=104 from settlement history | – |
| Despicable / Loser | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 39%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 37%n=64 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26APR30 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP