Donald Trump: Posts window, May 3, 2026
Polymarket What will Trump post this week? (April 27 - May 3)
Coverage
0 known appearancesevery post in the window Window: Apr 27, 2026 to May 3, 2026. Counts: post text (reposts excluded; image text counts). 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
23 words · 4 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll / Polling | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Midterm | Yes | – | 0 | 51%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Hoax / Scam | Yes | – | 0 | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Book | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Landslide | No | – | 0 | 54%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| POTUS | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| TrumpRX | No | – | 0 | 47%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Hell | No | – | 0 | 47%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | No | – | 0 | 42%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Ammo / Ammunition | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Franklin Graham | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| I love King / I love the King | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Prince Harry | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Prosecute / Prosecution | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Triumphal Arc / Triumphal Arch | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trust Trump / Trust in Trump | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | – | 0 | 40%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| UFO | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Third rate | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | – | 0 | 26%n=132 from settlement history | – |
| Make Iran Great Again / MIGA | No | – | 0 | 24%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | – | 0 | 21%n=349 from settlement history | – |
| Free Tina Peters | No | – | 0 | 19%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-post-this-week-april-27-may-3 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP