Donald Trump: Posts window, May 10, 2026
Polymarket What will Trump post this week? (May 4 - May 10)
Coverage
0 known appearancesevery post in the window Window: May 4, 2026 to May 10, 2026. Counts: post text (reposts excluded; image text counts). 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
16 words · 8 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FBI | Yes | – | 0 | 59%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Ass / Shit | Yes | – | 0 | 52%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| King | Yes | – | 0 | 50%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Secret Service | Yes | – | 0 | 42%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Hell | Yes | – | 0 | 40%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Senior | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Blockade | Yes | – | 0 | 36%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire / Cease-fire / Cease fire | Yes | – | 0 | 35%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela | No | – | 0 | 63%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Islamabad | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| TrumpIRA / TrumpIRA.gov | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Terminate the Filibuster | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| No Card | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Paper tiger | No | – | 0 | 36%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Jimmy / Kimmel | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | – | 0 | 19%n=355 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-post-this-week-may-4-may-10 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP