Will Donald Trump say “France”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “France” at 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 30, 2024 (20%), most recently on Oct 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 46% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 72¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
France
- Probability
- 46% · n=5
- Settled
- 1/5 (20%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
11 counted; 6 by speakers the rule does not count.
…more growth than any country in the world is having right now. France has no growth; France is growing the other way, and that's because…
…care -- it's an immigration problem. You had people that poured into France and they were also unchecked, unvetted like with Biden, what he was…
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown
Kalshi
PolymarketQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “France”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “France” at 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 30, 2024 (20%), most recently on Oct 20, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “France” next time?
- 46%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘France’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/france (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=france · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP