Will Donald Trump say “5%”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “5%” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 3, 2026.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
5%
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…at it -- I was thinking about a -- do we do 5 percent, 4 percent? Then when you start looking at the kind of…
…than ever before. NATO is doing things that nobody thought they would be able to do, including raising their number to 5% from 2% number.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 5% |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “5%”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “5%” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 3, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “5%” next time?
- 36%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘5%’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/5-percent (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=5%25 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP