Will Donald Trump say “ICE / Border Patrol”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “ICE / Border Patrol” at 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 10, 2025 (40%), most recently on Dec 13, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 39% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 2/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
ICE / Border Patrol
- Probability
- 39% · n=5
- Settled
- 2/5 (40%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Paul. Is that Paul? Paul. Wow. Paul is here from he uh Border Patrol. He's he's the boss and he's a great guy. Get up.…
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | ICE / Border Patrol |  Polymarket | No |
| Jan 28, 2026 | ICE / Border Patrol |  Kalshi | No |
| Dec 13, 2025 | ICE / Border Patrol | Kalshi | Yes |
| Dec 12, 2025 | ICE / Border Patrol | Kalshi | No |
| Dec 10, 2025 | ICE / Border Patrol | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “ICE / Border Patrol”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “ICE / Border Patrol” at 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 10, 2025 (40%), most recently on Dec 13, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “ICE / Border Patrol” next time?
- 39%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘ICE / Border Patrol’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/border-patrol-or-ice (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=border%20patrol%20%2F%20ice · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP