Will Donald Trump say “Mercedes / Mercedes-Benz”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Mercedes / Mercedes-Benz” at 4 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 30, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 5, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 67% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (4 rallies, 3 remarks, 1 speech; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 24, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 25, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 4/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Mercedes / Mercedes-Benz
- Probability
- 67% · n=4
- Settled
- 4/4 (100%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (4 rallies, 3 remarks, 1 speech); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…have to work because they steal so much. They all have a Mercedes Benz. Can you believe low IQ and they live better than you…
…hard to pay for. And we take that, and they then buy Mercedes. They then send that money overseas. But now, for the first time…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Mercedes / Mercedes-Benz |  Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Mercedes / Mercedes-Benz |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Mercedes / Mercedes-Benz | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (30 of 42 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Mercedes / Mercedes-Benz | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (30 of 42 known appearances transcribed)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Mercedes / Mercedes-Benz”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Mercedes / Mercedes-Benz” at 4 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 30, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 5, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Mercedes / Mercedes-Benz” next time?
- 67%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Mercedes / Mercedes-Benz’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/mercede-or-mercedes-benz (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=mercede%20%2F%20mercedes%20benz · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP