Will Donald Trump say “Turning Point”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Turning Point” at 6 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 23, 2024 (55%), most recently on Sep 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 56% (n=11, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (4 rallies, 3 remarks, 1 speech; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 24, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 25, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no no no no yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 15¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Turning Point
- Probability
- 56% · n=11
- Settled
- 6/11 (55%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 12 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | Turning Point |  Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (30 of 42 known appearances transcribed)) |
| May 31, 2026 | Turning Point | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Turning Point | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Turning Point | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Turning Point | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 9, 2026 | Turning Point | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Turning Point | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (1 of 1 known appearance transcribed; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 1, 2026 | Turning Point | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Turning Point | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Turning Point |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Turning Point | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 23, 2024 | Turning Point | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Turning Point”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Turning Point” at 6 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 23, 2024 (55%), most recently on Sep 21, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Turning Point” next time?
- 56%, from settlement history (n=11). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Turning Point’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/turning-point (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=turning%20point · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP